Candidates on ODM tickets in Rift Valley, North Eastern, Coast and definitely Nyanza province have a higher chance of making it to the 10th parliament compared to other Kibaki friendly parties. This is based on the fact that the PNU parties seem to be divided at a time when they should be uniting. Also, if the parties agree to go on their own, then ODM will take the day. This will be more of what we witnessed in 2002 between NARC and KANU this time NARC being ODM.
As for Presidency, Kibaki is way ahead of Raila, i don't forsee Raila getting that grip with majority of kenyans, also, the development record that Kibaki has can not be compared with what Raila has done in the last 15 years jumping from one party to the other in the name of seeking leadership.