Monday, April 30, 2007

Nairobi Constituencies: Westlands and Dagoreti

Westlands Constituency will be a hot spot again come this general elections. This is where the country first new that the parliamentary nominations are in most cases just a process but in reality the top party leaders usually know whom they want to run for parliament. Last general elections show down between Betty Tett and Fred Gumo is most likely going to happen with Tett in Narc-K and Gumo in ODM-K. Information coming from the ground is that Westlands is an open seat basically because Gumo has not lived to what he promised the electorates. He will definitely have a hard time convincing and seeking for votes in this constituency. Also, there are other prominent leaders who have shown interest in this constituency and they seem to be better placed that Gumo.

Also Mr Gumo's association with violent groups will be one of his down falls. People are tired of living in fear. As for Betty Tett, it will not be easy ground for her. Kamlesh "Paul" Pattni is also eying for this seat. Considering the number of Asians living in this city, votes that would have gone to Tett will be going to Kamlesh. Most of the civic seats in this constituency will be split on presidential candidates. This is where the party will really matter.

As for Dagoreti, candidates in Kibaki's party will definitely make it through. ODM-K seems not to have much on the ground taking off in this constituency. Of all the Nairobi constituencies, this is the only place that seem to vote more like central province. Also the constituents seem to be enjoying the support they are getting from their MP, Ms Beth Mugo but the young voters can make that change. If a youthful MP makes a stride in this constituency , he/she will have an easy task of unseating the incumbent MP.

As for civic seats, most of the people will vote on a three piece that means the president parliament and civic so Kibaki people will be enjoying the majority of votes here.

Nairobi Constituencies: EMBAKASI AND LANGATA

As much as it is said, this is the only place probably in the world where you do not have to be known but be in the right party to be elected. In the last three general elections we have seen people vote for the party rather than individuals performance. Some of the member of parliaments never make any contribution in parliament nor in their constituencies.

With this in mind, there seem to be maybe two MP's in the city that will make it back and thats its Raila Odinga of Langata and David Mwenje of Embakasi. This is due to the fact that they have always seem to be close to their constituents. But of the two, Raila's return is guaranteed due to his presidential ambitions and Kibera population which has always been behind him and stood by him even during the Ford Asili euphoria of 1992. Whoever, Mr Mwenje will have a tough task of convincing the constituents. He has contributed to the well being of the society and his strong base still remains as Dandora and Kayole, if any one is aspiring and gets the backing in Dandora and Kayole then Mwenje will be in trouble.

This also goes on with the civic seat this is where the party will play a big role. In langata, it seems to be divided between ODM-K and party that Mwai Kibaki chooses for presidency. in Langata constituency, civic seats will posibly go as follows
  1. Serangombe - ODM K
  2. Nairobi West - Narc -K ( Kibaki's)
  3. Laini Saba - ODM-K
  4. Mugumoini - Narc K
  5. Karen - Narc - K
  6. Kibera - ODM- K
In Embakasi, most (if not all) of the civic seats will go to Narc- Kenya. But chances are if the youths turn out they will vote for one of their own regardless of the party affiliation. Most of the Councillors are old and have been there for a while. It will be interesting to see new blood take over the city council.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

ODM Kenya Credibility

Where did ODM-Kenya fail? That seems to be the question that most people ask. A year or so ago, ODM seemed to be enjoying support from majority of Kenyans and that support now seems to be shifting sides.

I wonder what kind of PR move they will have to use to be able to win the citizens back considering the daily "fights" and mistrust among the presidential candidates. Last weeks statement by Musalia Mudavadi, a presidential candidate on ODM ticket that one of the people seeking presidency on party's ticket is a dictator does not help but complicate if the leaders of the party can be trusted.

This might cause ODM to loose big come general elections since Kenyans in most cased vote "three piece suit" for the Presidency, Parliamentary and civic. This means unless some ODM aspirants might loose on being elected if they keep on supporting leaders who seem to be only fighting against themselves rather than campaigning and showing the country that they are leaders who can contribute to the country's well being better than what Kibaki.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Youth Votes in Kenya

For the last 15 years, actually the last three general elections, the ruling government (KANU) used money to buy voters decision and during the last general elections, the youth decided that enough was enough, they wanted changes and thats what happened. A new government was brought to power.

With this in mind, this will be the first "money free" general elections since independence. I believe the youth will not vote for the money but for the development record and need to excel. For so many years we have voted for leaders who do appear only during elections and never to be seen again.

Soon will be reviewing MP's performance's and see who needs to be back to parliament and who needs to go home. Most of the sitting MP's are really scared of the forth coming elections for they know they will not be able to make it.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Kibaki for the lead


Kenya's 3rd President, Mwai Kibaki, seems to be enjoying an easy campaign year. His economic performance will easily be the factor that most people will be considering come the next general elections later on this year.

Mr. Kibaki has demonstrated that a leader need to not to talk but act, this has been a different kind of leadership that Kenyans would have only imagined.

Even though there seem to be some people who are dissatisfied by his leadership, his silence when as a leader of the country is supposed to talk regarding issues affecting the country, he has demonstrated that one does not need "Propagandaist" specialist to run the country.